Saturday, March 1, 2014

Where will Ukrainian unrest lead?

For the last few months protests in Ukraine - which became increasingly more violent in the run up to an emergency election called which resulted in Ukrainian President Yanukovych's removal and the formation of an interim government, I believe until regular elections commence.
Source: http://www.bbc.com/news/


Almost immediately after this election concluded, worries about an invasion by Russia - supposedly legitimized by the assertion that doing so would be only in the interest of protecting Russian citizens living in Ukraine - began to surface, especially after a group of apparently military, but unidentified armed men took control of the Simferopol Airport in Crimea, an autonomous republic of Ukraine to its south.

Now those worries may be actualized by a decision to approve Vladimir Putin's request for troop deployment in the Ukraine, though with the not very reassuring caveat given by Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin that the approved request may "not be used quickly".

Due to the actions of those armed men who took control of Simferopol Airport, international attention has rushed into Crimea and shed light on the possibility of it become a new, potentially violent flashpoint in fights between Pro-Russia and Pro-E.U. protesters.  I had a conversation a few days ago about the unrest in Ukraine, and the subject of a possible civil war rising along the lines of these protesters, of the Pro-EU Western Ukraine and the Eastern Ukraine (whose demographics are comprised of high numbers of ethnic Russians and Russian citizens).

Unfortunately, due to the constant brewing of unrest within the country, and overt, unapologetic pressure from Russia, the idea that this situation could come into civil war - especially with the now looming threat of Russian invasion - is more and more likely.

It is quite interesting to note as well the parallels between Cold War tactics and the growing tensions between the U.S. and Russia.  Both countries had been tiptoeing around the issue of Syria to avoid a Cold War-style proxy war spilling into the issue of Iran, yet now the focal point of these U.S.-Russo tensions have shifted into Ukraine.  Indeed, this may turn into something much bigger than Ukrainian unrest itself if the two powers aren't careful.

Though perhaps Russia is instead well aware of that, and is attempting to reassert its 'soft' power on the world stage amidst unimpressive U.S. economic growth and a recent announcement by U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel that the Pentagon plans to downsize the military.

I believe it is important to watch the unfolding of the domestic conflict in Ukraine, simply because of how far reaching the conclusion of this conflict will be for all parties involved, internally and internationally.  The political dynamics of the global balance of power seem to be in transition away from the Western-centric balance of the late 20th Century, and the worrisome events in Ukraine - and how they are resolved - may offer us a glimpse into the future of that transition.

(>^_^)>#...

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